Transport Outlook 2040

The Federal Office for Spatial Development ARE joined forces with other federal agencies – including the Federal Office of Transport FOT, the Federal Roads Office FEDRO, the Swiss Federal Office of Energy SFOE and the Federal Office for the Environment FOEN – to draw up scenarios for how passenger and freight transport will develop up to 2040. The scenarios serve as a basis for planning road and rail infrastructure programmes, as well as for transport and planning policy decisions. The findings are also incorporated into the Energy Outlook and calculations of noise and air emission levels.

After the classic reference scenario had been produced, two sensitivity analyses were conducted based on it, and three alternative scenarios drawn up. The reference scenario extrapolates the underlying trends of recent decades, and shows how the use of space and transport might develop given the parameters that apply today. By contrast, the sensitivity analyses assume different population and economic trends - more dynamic and less dynamic growth, respectively - but keep the same assumptions about spatial planning and transport policy. The objective of the explorative alternative scenarios is to analyse bandwidths for conceivable spatial and transport trends.

Transport Outlook 2040
Transport Outlook 2040: Overview of the trend in key indicators between 2010 and 2040 (reference scenario).

Documents

Transport Outlook 2040 - Main report (PDF, 2 MB, 30.08.2016)The main report includes explanations of retrospective trends in passenger and freight transport, describes how the scenarios were constructed, and documents all of the results (in German).

Transport Outlook 2040 - Synthesis report (PDF, 1015 kB, 30.08.2016)The synthesis report summarises the key findings on the basis of the main report (in German, French and Italian).

Transport Outlook 2040 - Technical report (PDF, 3 MB, 30.08.2016)The technical report documents how the scenarios were quantified, how the models for passenger and freight transport were applied, and how the spatial distribution of the population was modelled (in German).


Transport Outlook 2040 - Additional report 2050 (PDF, 795 kB, 01.09.2016)The projection 2050 shows the transport development until 2050 based on a simplified update for selected indicators. The focus is on the Swiss-wide development in passenger and freight transport (in German).

Social trends and technological developments in passenger and freight transport to 2040 (PDF, 834 kB, 01.09.2016)In the context of the Swiss Transport Outlook 2040, this study examined selected social trends and technological developments. The findings, in the form of qualitative and quantitative recommendations, fed into the Transport Outlook in the reconciliations which it conducted, and in the way in which the scenarios were determined (in German).

Geographical development of jobs in Switzerland – trend and scenarios up to 2040 (PDF, 2 MB, 29.01.2016)This project modelled scenarios for the future development of jobs in Switzerland up to 2040 (in German).

Tables

The key indicators of trends in passenger and freight transport, as well as the underlying socioeconomic data, are available as Excel tables. The person and tonne kilometres, as well as the vehicle kilometres, travelled by road are shown for each of the reference scenario, the alternative scenarios and the sensitivity analysis. The figures are further broken down into mode and means of transport, road type and built-up/non built-up areas, goods category and type of transport (domestic, import, export, transit) for freight transport, as well as by spatial mobility (MS) region and local authority types (in German).

Contact

The Federal Office for Spatial Development ARE

Andreas Justen

+41 58 463 41 58

3003 Bern

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https://www.are.admin.ch/content/are/en/home/transport-and-infrastructure/data/transport-perspectives.html